Semiconductor OSAT Capacity Forecast 2026–2030
Assembly, test and packaging capacity by geography and technology node, with the engineer-workforce constraint modelled.
Market size
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Forecast
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CAGR
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What this report answers
The back end of the semiconductor industry is being redrawn by subsidy frameworks, and this report is the capacity ledger for that redraw. It models assembly, testing and packaging capacity through 2030 across nine geographies, split by technology generation — wire-bond, flip-chip, wafer-level and the advanced 2.5D/3D families — and grounded in the project-by-project tracker Lumera maintains of every announced ATP investment outside the traditional corridor.
The distinguishing feature of the forecast is the workforce constraint. Capital can build cleanrooms in three years; it cannot build process engineers. The report models packaging-engineer supply against announced capacity for India, Vietnam and Malaysia and shows where the ramp curves in company presentations are physically impossible, and by how much.
Vendor coverage completes the picture: the bonders, testers and handlers who sell to every geography regardless of politics, and whose order books are the most reliable leading indicator of which announced projects will actually be built.
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